In recent years some paers have been bublished that deal with the forecasting performance of indicators for the German economy. The real-time aspect, however, was largely neglected. This article analyses the information content of some ifo indicators (the business climate index for the...

We provide a summary updated guide for the construction, use and evaluation of leading indicators, and an assessment of the most relevant recent developments in this field of economic forecasting. To begin with, we analyse the problem of selecting a target coincident variable for the leading...

In this chapter we provide a guide for the construction, use and evaluation of leading indicators, and an assessment of the most relevant recent developments in this field of economic forecasting. To begin with, we analyze the problem of indicator selection, choice of filtering methods, business...

The term now-casting is a contraction for now and forecasting and has been used for a long-time in meteorology and recently also in economics In this paper we survey recent developments on economic now-casting with special focus on those models that formalize key features of how market...

En este trabajo se considera, desde un punto de vista empírico, el contenido informativo de los tipos deinterés para prever la evolución futura de la economía española mediante la determinación de la probabilidad de que ésta se encuentre en una etapa recesiva a distintos horizontes...

This study utilizes the dynamic factor model of Giannone et al. (2008) in order to make now-/ forecasts of GDP quarter-on-quarter growth rate in Switzerland. It also assesses the informational content of macroeconomic data releases for forecasting of the Swiss GDP. We find that the factor model...

Accurate and timely information on GDP is important to gauge the overall state of the economy and is thus essential for economic policymaking. A single-index dynamic factor model is estimated using mixed-frequency data on GDP, industrial production, employment, private consumption and exports to...

The question arises whether there can be an enrichment of business cycle research when business cycle indicators will be used in an increasing dimension. This article, dedicated to Professor Adolf Wagner, tries to differentiate three fields of research: Hypothesis formation in theory,...

This paper presents a composite leading indicator for the Swiss business cycle corresponding to the growth rate cycle concept. It is the result of a complete overhaul of the KOF Economic Barometer that has been published by the KOF Swiss Economic Institute on a monthly basis since 1976. In line...