This article presents a range of tools and indicators for analysing fiscal vulnerabilities and risks for advanced economies. The analysis covers key short-, medium- and long-term dimensions. Short-term pressures are captured by assessing (i) gross funding needs, (ii) market perceptions of...

This paper evaluates weekly out-of-sample volatility forecast performance of univariate Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) model compared to the benchmark model of GARCH(1,1) for ten emerging stock markets. The results show that the MIDAS model offers a statistically better forecasting precision during...

This paper explores the issue of constructing an economic predictive model of financial vulnerability through an alternative econometric methodology that addresses drawbacks in existing approaches. The methodology entails estimating a Markov regime switching model of exchange rate movements,...

We investigate the impact of coskewness on the variation of portfolio excess returns in Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) over the period July 1999 to December 2005. We form portfolios according to size, industry, size and book-to-market ratio, momentum and coskewness and compare alternative asset...

This paper explores the issue of constructing an economic predictive model of financial vulnerability through an alternative econometric methodology that addresses drawbacks in existing approaches. The methodology entails estimating a Markov regime switching model of exchange rate movements,...

We perform factor analysis on monthly yield curves estimated by Nelson-Siegel model using the Turkish secondary government securities market data. Monthly yield curves are characterized by three factors which are estimated using nominal volume-weighted average monthly zero-coupon yields....

We estimate the demand for new automobiles in Turkey immediately following its entry to Custom Union with the European Union in 1996. We use quarterly data on price, quantity, quality, country of origin and product characteristics of the new automobile sales market and macroeconomic variables to...