investment changes meaningfully alter ex post outcomes. In contrast, insurance, which provides no information, increases …

This book is about managing the task of forecasting profit. It builds a case for using multiple methods, providing … profit forecasts. All the elements that infringe on profits (costs, sales, budgeting, investment, and loan default) are …

realizations. We show that the forecasts significantly affect farmer investment decisions and that these responses account for a … the main instrument, that the return to agricultural investment depends substantially on the conditions under which it is …-invest, by a factor of three, when we compare actual levels of investments to the optimal investment level that maximizes …

leads to significantly larger agricultural investment and riskier production choices in agriculture. The salient constraint …The investment decisions of small-scale farmers in developing countries are conditioned by their financial environment …. Binding credit market constraints and incomplete insurance can reduce investment in activities with high expected profits. We …

leads to significantly larger agricultural investment and riskier production choices in agriculture. The binding constraint …The investment decisions of small‐scale farmers in developing countries are conditioned by their financial environment …. Binding credit market constraints and incomplete insurance can reduce investment in activities with high expected profits. We …

may mute their impact on productive investment. In an experiment in Malawi, we cross-cut cash transfers with an "input … fair," designed to reduce transport costs to access agricultural inputs. Cash alone increases investment by 27%, while the … joint provision of cash and the input fair increases investment by about 40%; thus, the incremental effect of the input fair …