We examine whether changes in the distribution of household inflation expectations contain information on future … distribution of household expectations does indeed help predict one-year-ahead CPI inflation. Variance and skewness of household …

We test whether forecast bias affects household stock trading by combining measures of bias elicited in laboratory … experiments with administrative trade-level data. On average, subjects exhibit positive forecast bias (i.e., extrapolators), while … a large minority exhibit negative forecast bias (i.e., contrarians). Forecast bias is positively associated with past …