type="main" xml:id="jtsa12081-abs-0001"A time-series model in which the signal is buried in noise that is non-Gaussian may throw up observations that, when judged by the Gaussian yardstick, are outliers. We describe an observation-driven model, based on an exponential generalized beta...

This book provides a description of the main macroeconomic models used by the European Central Bank and the euro area national central banks (Eurosystem). These models are used to help prepare economic projections and scenario analysis for individual countries and the euro area as a whole.

This paper discusses the use of preliminary data in econometric forecasting. The standard practice is to ignore the distinction between preliminary and final data, the forecasts that do so here being termed naïve forecasts. It is shown that in dynamic models a multistep-ahead naïve forecast...