Baghestani, Hamid; Kherfi, Samer - In: The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 48 (2008) 4, pp. 725-732
The Michigan survey asks U.S. consumers about their 1-year expected directional change in interest rates. For 1978-1983 when interest rates are volatile, we find a strong association between the actual and predicted changes, with no asymmetry (the proportions of incorrectly predicted upward and...