The willingness of banks to provide funding for real estate purchases depends on the creditworthiness of borrowers. Besides other factors, this creditworthiness depends on the development of real estate prices. Real estate prices, in turn, depend on the demand for homes which is influenced by...

This paper examines the origins of herding behavior in asset markets and its potential to produce a price bubble. I present a model which explains the emergence and the development of herding behavior via asymmetric information and Baysian learning. A corresponding price bubble is explained...

We develop a theoretical model of mortgage loss rates that evaluates their main underlying risk factors. Following the model, loss rates are positively influenced by the house price level, the loan-to-value of mortgages, interest rates, and the unemployment rate. They are negatively influenced...

This Handbook aims to provide an overview of regular survey activities, as well as to show how survey results can be used scientifically in the context of business-cycle analysis and forecasting.

Purpose – A comparison of fundamental house prices with actual prices indicates that house prices fluctuate more than fundamentally justified, a fact difficult to explain with standard rational agent models. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate to what extent herding behaviour among...

Besteht in Deutschland eine Kreditklemme bzw. ein Credit Crunch? Um das Ausmaß dieses Problems für die deutsche Wirtschaft zu untersuchen, hat das ifo Ins-titut im Rahmen seiner monatlichen Konjunkturtestumfrage im Juni und August dieses Jahres die Teilnehmer nach der Bereitschaft der Banken,...

Das ifo Institut bietet über seinen Konjunkturtest auch einen Beschäftigungsindikator, welcher für die Bereiche verarbeitendes Gewerbe, Bau, Handel und gewerbliche Wirtschaft jeweils eine sehr hohe Kreuzkorrelation mit der entsprechenden Beschäftigungsentwicklung aufweist. Der Indikator ist...