Experts were used as Delphi panellists and asked to present forecasts on financial market variables in a controlled experiment. We found that the respondents with the least accurate or least conventional views were particularly likely to modify their answers. Most of these modifications were in...

A survey of the empirical literature on early warning indicators of banking crises is presented. Descriptive analyses have been published for decades, but cross-national panel data analyses have only been performed since the late 1990s. More recently, the severity of the subprime-Lehman crisis...

This paper analyses the deterioration of bank credit quality during the recent financial crisis in a cross-national sample. Rapid credit growth in 2000–2005 predicted the relative amount of non-performing loans only if it was combined with a current account deficit.