‘Modern’ Phillips curve theories predict inflation is an integrated, or near integrated, process. However, inflation appears bounded above and below in developed economies and so cannot be ‘truly’ integrated and more likely stationary around a shifting mean. If agents believe inflation...

Drawing on over hundred years of research into innovation and an in depth research study, the book brings to life the reality of managing established firms to secure advantage through vigilant innovation approaches in disrupting digital era markets. Exploring how organizations manage new...

United States Phillips curves are routinely estimated without accounting for the shifts in mean inflation. As a result, we may expect the standard estimates of Phillips curves to be biased and suffer from auto-regressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH). We demonstrate this is indeed the...

The standard approach to modelling the relationship between world and producer prices of coffee does not incorporate the effects of changing government policies and market structures. These changes have led to large structural breaks in the relationship between the prices implying the standard...

Modern theories of inflation incorporate a vertical long-run Phillips curve and are usually estimated using techniques that ignore the non-stationary behaviour of inflation. Consequently, the estimates obtained are imprecise and unable to test the veracity of a vertical long-run Phillips curve....

We develop a small model for forecasting inflation for the euro area using quarterly data over the period June 1973 to March 1999. The model is used to provide inflation forecasts from June 1999 to March 2002. We compare the forecasts from our model with those derived from six competing...