This paper considers several methods of producing a single forecast from several individual ones. We compare “standard” but hard to beat combination schemes (such as the average of forecasts at each period, or consensus forecast and OLS-based combination schemes) with more sophisticated...

This paper considers several methods of producing a single forecast from several individual ones. We compare "standard" but hard to beat combination schemes (such as the average of forecasts at each period, or consensus forecast and OLS-based combination schemes) with more sophisticated...

The liberalization of electricity markets more than ten years ago in the vast majority of developed countries has introduced the need of modelling and forecasting electricity prices and volatilities, both in the short and long term.

In the current uncertain context that affects both the world economy and the energy sector, with the rapid increase in the prices of oil and gas and the very unstable political situation that affects some of the largest raw materials’ producers, there is a need for developing efficient and...

In this paper we propose two new descriptive measures for multivariate data: the effective variance and the effective dependence. These measures have a direct geometric and statistical interpretation and can be used to compare groups with different number of variables. The contribution of these...

The combination of individual forecasts is often a useful tool to improve forecast accuracy. The most commonly used technique for forecast combination is the mean, and it has frequently proved hard to surpass. This study considers factor analysis to combine US inflation forecasts showing that...