We show that when instruments are nearly exogenous, the two stage least squares t-statistic unpredictably over-rejects or under-rejects the null hypothesis that the endogenous regressor is insignificant and Anderson-Rubin test over-rejects the null. We prove that in the limit these tests are no...

There is a growing consensus that it is difficult to pick instruments that perfectly satisfy the exclusion restriction. Drawing on results from Berkowitz, Caner, and Fang (2012, Journal of Econometrics 166: 255–266), we provide in this article a nontechnical summary of how valid inferences can...

This paper analyzes the drivers and consequences of sudden stops of capital flows. It focuses on the impact of external vulnerability on the depth and length of sudden stop crises. The authors analyze 43 developing and developed countries between 1993 and 2006. They find evidence that external...