Main description: Econometric models are widely used in the creation and evaluation of economic policy in the public and private sectors. But these models are useful only if they adequately account for the phenomena in question, and they can be quite misleading if they do not. In response,...

The article provides detailed and accurate illustrations of Bayesian analysis of DSGE models that are likely to be used increasingly in support of central bank policy making. These comments identify a dozen aspects of these methods, discussing how their application and improvement can contribute...

Bayesian forecasting is a natural product of a Bayesian approach to inference. The Bayesian approach in general requires explicit formulation of a model, and conditioning on known quantities, in order to draw inferences about unknown ones. In Bayesian forecasting, one simply takes a subset of...

This paper shows that regular fractional polynomials can approximate regular cost, production and utility functions and their first two derivatives on closed compact subsets of the strictly positive orthant of Euclidean space arbitrarily well. These functions therefore can provide reliable...

The expenditure consequences of the drug cimetidine for the period 1977-1979 are investigated. Using Medicaid data for the State of Michigan, it is found that expenditures for the first year of treatment of duodenal ulcers are reduced between 26% and 70%. The methodology employed can be applied...

Public policy setting often involves quantitative choices with quantitative outcomes. Yet unqualified statements about the precise consequences of alternative choices characterize much of the policy analysis bearing on these decisions. Public Policy in an Uncertain World: Analysis and Decisions...