It has been common to assume that the relationship between economic activity and oil prices is asymmetric. Theoretical underpinnings for this asymmetry include costly sectoral reallocation, partial equilibrium models of irreversible investment, and some version of precautionary savings. Yet,...

This article develops a non-Bayesian methodology to analyse the time-varying structure of international linkages and market efficiency in G7 countries. We consider a non-Bayesian time-varying vector autoregressive (TV-VAR) model, and apply it to estimate the joint degree of market efficiency in...

Trend-cycle decompositions for US real GDP such as the unobserved components models, the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition, the Hodrick-Prescott filter and others yield very different cycles which bear little resemblance to the NBER chronology, ascribes much movements to the trend leaving little to...