This paper compares the short-term load performance of several forecasting models, including a new class of nonlinear models known as smooth transition periodic autoregressive (STPAR) models. A model building procedure is developed for the STPAR model, along with a linearity test against smooth...

In electrical power systems with strong hydro generation, the use of adequate techniques to generate synthetic hydrological scenarios is extremely important for the evaluation of the ways the system behaves in order to meet the forecast energy demand. This paper proposes a new model to generate...