Conventional wisdom in economic history suggests that conflict between countries can be enormously disruptive of economic activity, especially international trade. Yet nothing is known empirically about these effects in large samples. We study the effects of war on bilateral trade for almost all...

This paper considers the extent to which terrorism in Africa and South Asia is an economic good that can be explained within a standard rational choice model of optimizing agent, or an existential good explained by individuals who are present-aim oriented. Such a consideration is important for...

This paper considers the extent to which terrorism in Africa and South Asia is an economic good that can be explained within a standard rational choice model of optimizing agent, or an existential good explained by individuals who are present-aim oriented. Such a consideration is important for...

We examine a conflictual setting in which adversaries cannot contract on an enforcement variable (arms) and where the future strategic positions of adversaries are very different when there is open conflict than when there is settlement. We show that, as the future becomes more important in this...

We study terrorist choice from the perspective of economics and psychology. Using RANDMIPT data about the injuries and fatalities inflicted by different terrorist attack methods, we compute sets of preference orderings over the attack methods using prospect theory. This incorporates reference...

We study a model of conflicts and wars in which the outcome is uncertain not because of luck on the battlefield as in standard models, but because countries lack information about their opponent. In this model expected resource levels and production and military technologies are common...

This paper examines how violence influences the political preferences of an aggrieved constituency that is purportedly represented by militant factions. Using longitudinal public opinion poll micro data of the Palestinian population linked to data on fatalities from the Second Intifada, we find...

The article discusses, first, systems control theory, which tells us how a self-regulating system, for example of social and political peace, should work. Second, it considers the theory of imperfect markets, which tells us just why peace and security frequently fail to be obtained. Third, it...

The article compares civil strife in the public arena to labor strikes in the private arena. Both are predicated on incomplete information (both sides believing they can "win," when one – and possibly both – must "lose"). Reasons for conflict, especially in Africa, include the rent-based...

The proposition that democracies are more peaceful than autocracies has spawned a huge literature. Much of the relevant quantitative research has shown that democracies indeed rarely, if ever, fight each other, although they are not necessarily less bellicose than autocracies in general. This...