Many recent chapters have investigated whether data from internet search engines such as Google can help improve nowcasts or short-term forecasts of macroeconomic variables. These chapters construct variables based on Google searches and use them as explanatory variables in regression models. We...

In this paper we construct a large Bayesian Vector Autoregressive model (BVAR) for the Euro area that captures the complex dynamic inter-relationships between the main components of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and their determinants. The model generates accurate conditional...

This article documents macroeconomic forecasting during the global financial crisis by two key central banks: the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The article is the result of a collaborative effort between staff at the two institutions, allowing us to study the...

Combining economic and political science perspectives, this timely and important book describes and analyses the circumstances and events leading to the demise and subsequent reform of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP).

The paper provides an assessment of the effect of the recent revision of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) on the European economies. A set of structural VARs, one for each Eurozone country, is estimated. The estimated models are then used to assess the possible effect of alternative sets of...