The strong correlation between having graduated from a selective college and success in the labor market has been robustly observed in many countries. There are two major explanations for this finding. One claims that graduating from a selective college assures success in the labor market in a...

Many studies have observed the leading indicator property of the term spread (LIPTS), which indicates that the term spread—the difference between long- and short-term interest rates—has information on future economic conditions. We examine whether this property is related to monetary policy...

This article examines whether the yield spread contains information on the likelihood of future economic recessions using a probit model by taking the stability of the relationship between the yield spread and future recessions into account. We also compare the accuracy of information in the...