In this article, past forecast errors are used to construct confidence intervals around Australian Government Budget forecasts of key economic and fiscal variables. These confidence intervals provide an indication of the extent of uncertainty around the point estimate forecasts presented in the...

In the 1990s the mainstream consensus was that trade causes growth. Subsequent research shed doubt on the consensus view, as evidence suggested that the identification of the effect of trade on growth was problematic in the existing literature. This paper contributes to this debate by focusing...

Pacific open ocean fisheries are classic examples of the tragedy of the commons where a lack of defined ownership results in competitive overexploitation by multiple parties. Such circumstances exist over most Pacific seas beyond site of land due to scarce monitoring resources. Voluntary...

For all its history, Australia has been dependent upon a major power for security. Before federation, the colonies looked to Britain. That attitude continued until World War II. Britain was then unable to defend us, and Australia was vulnerable. Strategic dependence upon a major power was in the...

In 2013, the Rudd Labor Government introduced a new version of the ‘Pacific Solution’ to Australia's ‘problem’ with increasing numbers of asylum-seekers arriving by boat. The new version not only included the transfer of asylum-seekers to Nauru and Manus Island in Papua New Guinea, it...

Chinese development assistance in the Pacific has attracted increasing attention since the 1st China-Pacific Island Countries Economic Development and Cooperation Forum in 2006, at which China announced US$492 million in concessional loans to the region. Another US$1 billion in concessional...

The global financial crisis proves how unforeseen macroeconomic conditions can affect policies aimed at reducing and stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions. It has made voters uneasy about potential climate policy that could raise energy costs and unemployment. To improve the political stability...

This article reviews key past trends in energy security from the perspective of both International Energy Agency members and the Asia Pacific over the past 30 years, and assesses future energy risks. Developments in energy efficiency, unconventional oil and gas, and stationary renewable energy...

The triumphalism of the immediate post-Cold War period in the United States has faded, and concern about decline has returned. In the field of international relations, the return of power transition models is exemplary of the new mood. This article argues that realist models misjudge the source...

China's forest cover has been increasing in the past three decades, which is in sharp contrast to rapid declines in other natural resources. Understanding the mechanisms of forest recovery and their effects is essential for sustaining forests in China and elsewhere. Some studies suggest that...