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This chapter examines the problems of dealing with trending type data when there is uncertainty over whether or not we really have unit roots in the data. This uncertainty is practical - for many macroeconomic and financial variables theory does not imply a unit root in the data however unit...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005453173
We analyze the complete subset regression (CSR) approach of Elliott et al. (2013) in situations with many possible predictor variables. The CSR approach has the computational advantage that it can be applied even when the number of predictors exceeds the sample size. Theoretical results...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011264276
There are a large number of tests for instability or breaks in coefficients in regression models designed for different possible departures from the stable model. We make two contributions to this literature. First, we consider a large class of persistent breaking processes that lead to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011212296
Consider inference about the pre and post break value of a scalar parameter in a time series model with a single break at an unknown date. Unless the break is large, treating the break date estimated by least squares as the true break date leads to substantially oversized tests and confidence...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011052212
This Paper proposes a new forecast combination method that lets the combination weights be driven by regime switching in a latent state variable. An empirical application that combines forecasts from survey data and time series models finds that the proposed regime switching combination scheme...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662283
It is well known that the distribution of statistics testing restrictions on the coefficients in time series regressions can depend on the order of integration of the regressors. In practice the order of integration is rarely blown. This paper examines two conventional approaches to this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005779044
Point estimates suggest mean reversion in real exchange rates; however, it still remains uncomfortable that models without any mean reversion are often compatible with data from the floating period. Studies with data over longer periods find mean reversion, but at the cost of mixing in data from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005736568
Empirical studies using survey data on expectations have frequently observed that forecasts are biased and have concluded that agents are not rational. We establish that existing rationality tests are not robust to even small deviations from symmetric loss and hence have little ability to tell...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005737257