Structural economic models allow one to analyze counterfactuals when economic systems change and to evaluate the well-being of economic agents. A key element in such analysis is the ability to identify the primitive functions and distributions of the economic models that are employed to describe...

We conduct a simulation study of Local Projection (LP) and Vector Autoregression (VAR) estimators of structural impulse responses across thousands of data generating processes, designed to mimic the properties of the universe of U.S. macroeconomic data. Our analysis considers various...

This paper analyses the use of factor analysis for instrumental variable estimation when the number of instruments tends to infinity. In particular, we focus on situations where many weak instruments exist and/or the factor structure is weak. Theoretical results, simulation experiments and...

This paper examines the historical evolution of central bank credibility using both historical narrative and empirics for a group of 16 countries, both advanced and emerging. It shows how the evolution of credibility has gone through a pendulum where credibility was high under the classical gold...

The contribution of generalized method of moments (Hansen and Singleton, 1982) was to allow frequentist inference regarding the parameters of a nonlinear structural model without having to solve the model. Provided there were no latent variables. The contribution of this paper is the same. With...

In this paper we provide empirical measures of central bank credibility and augment these with historical narratives from eleven countries. To the extent we are able to apply reliable institutional information we can also indirectly assess their role in influencing the credibility of the...

This paper considers the estimation of panel data models by first differences in the presence of endogenous variables and under an instrumental variables condition. This framework leads to the resolution of linear inverse problems solved using a Tikhonov regularization with L2 or Sobolev...

I discuss instrumental variable estimates of the effect of providing unpaid adult care on the caregivers' probability of being employed, using eight waves of the European Community Household Panel. I focus on men aged 40–64 and women aged 40–59 from thirteen Member States, aggregated in two...

Individual outcomes are highly correlated with group average outcomes, a fact often interpreted as a causal peer effect. Without covariates, however, outcome-on-outcome peer effects are vacuous, either unity or, if the average is defined as a leave-out mean, determined by a generic intraclass...