AbstractThis paper investigates the macroeconomic projections of the German government since the 1970s and compares it to those of the Joint Economic Forecast, which is an independent forecasting institution in Germany. Our results indicate that both nominal GDP projections are upward biased for...

In this paper, we ask whether it is possible to forecast gross value-added (GVA) and its sectoral sub-components at the regional level. With an autoregressive distributed lag model we forecast total and sectoral GVA for one German state (Saxony) with more than 300 indicators from different...

The debate on localization and urbanization economies usually neglects interdependencies between the two types of economies. This paper addresses this problem by employing an interaction model using German data covering four different sectors for the years 1998 to 2008. We find that localization...

Abstract We tackle the nowcasting problem at the regional level, using a large set of indicators (regional, national and international) for the years 1998 to 2013. We explicitly take into account the ragged-edge data structure and consider the different information sets faced by a regional...