In this paper we estimate equilibrium exchange rates for 23 OECD countries and four less mature economies in a panel data setting. Our empirical analysis demonstrates significant links between the trade balance and net foreign assets, and between real exchange rates and the trade balance, rather...

International financial integration allows countries to become net creditors or net debtors with respect to the rest of the world. In this Paper, we show that a small set of fundamentals shifts in relative output levels, the stock of public debt and demographic factors can do much to explain the...

We examine the link between the net foreign asset position, the trade balance and the real exchange rate. In particular, we decompose the impact of a country’s net foreign asset position (‘external wealth’) on its long-run real exchange rate into two mechanisms: the relation between...

The Paper proposes a unified framework to study the dynamics of net foreign assets and exchange rate movements. We show that deteriorations in a country’s net exports or net foreign asset position have to be matched either by future net export growth (trade adjustment channel) or by future...

International financial integration has greatly increased the scope for changes in a country’s net foreign asset position through the “valuation channel” of external adjustment, namely capital gains and losses on the country’s external assets and liabilities. We examine this valuation...

Changes in asset prices of a country's foreign assets and liabilities (“valuation effects”) are commonly thought of as stabilizing: they counteract current account movements and mitigate the impact of the current account on the country's net foreign asset (NFA) position. This paper shows...