Summary This paper proposes a dynamic bi-factor model with Markov switching which detects and predicts turning points of the German business cycle. It estimates simultaneously the composite leading indicator (CLI) and composite coincident indicator (CCI) together with corresponding probabilities...

Summary In this study, we suggest an explanation for the low growth rates of real housing prices in Canada and Germany in comparison to other OECD countries over the period 1975-2005. We show that the long-run development of housing markets is determined by real disposable per-capita income, the...

Summary This study utilizes the dynamic factor model of Giannone et al. (2008) in order to make now-/ forecasts of GDP quarter-on-quarter growth rate in Switzerland. It also assesses the informational content of macroeconomic data releases for forecasting of the Swiss GDP. We find that the...

type="main" <p>We suggest using information from the state register of personal cars as an alternative indicator of economic inequality in countries with a large share of shadow economy. We illustrate our approach using the Latvian pool of personal cars. Our main finding is that the extent of...</p>

P<sc>ijnenburg</sc> K. and K<sc>holodilin</sc> K. A. Do regions with entrepreneurial neighbours perform better? A spatial econometric approach for German regions, <italic>Regional Studies</italic>. A Neoclassical production function is used to analyse the effects of knowledge spillovers via entrepreneurship on economic...

In this paper, the authors construct country-specific chronologies of the house price bubbles for 12 OECD countries over the period 1969:Q1-2009:Q4. These chronologies are obtained using a combination of a fundamental approach and a filter approach. The resulting speculative bubble chronology is...

In this paper, we analyse the impact of the economic reforms implemented in the 1980s and of the Customs Union Agreement of 1996 on the intra-industry trade in Turkey. We use panel data for 20 trading partners of Turkey and the sample period from 1969 until 2009. Controlling for the effects of...