David Hendry has made major contributions to many areas of economic forecasting. He has developed a taxonomy of forecast errors and a theory of unpredictability that have yielded valuable insights into the nature of forecasting. He has also provided new perspectives on many existing forecast...

In “Excessive Ambitions," Jon Elster criticizes a wide range of social science aspirations to understand a complicated and evolving reality. Some of his analysis is to the point, but some is flawed, as explained in my comments. Crucially, however, his conclusions on empirical modeling are...

This article explains the basis for a theory of economic forecasting developed over the past decade by the authors. The research has resulted in numerous articles in academic journals, two monographs, Forecasting Economic Time Series, 1998, Cambridge University Press, and Forecasting...

We revisit equilibrium-correction modelling of aggregate real consumers' expenditure in the UK, using Autometrics applied to the data in Davidson, Hendry, Srba and Yeo (DHSY; 1978). The many selection decisions involved in developing viable empirical models are discussed in a setting where there...