The standard macroeconomic view links the equilibrium level of foreign exchange rates to the state of the macroeconomic fundamentals. Any deviation from the equilibrium level is viewed as temporary since there are forces ensuring quickly mean-reverting dynamics. The aim of this article is to...

[eng] Non-linear Cointegration : a Discussion of Methodology.. The aim of this paper is to present recent contributions extending the classical concept of cointegration to non-linear cases. Thus, we look at a joint study of non-stationary and non-linear phenomena and offer a complete...

The aim of this article is to answer the following question: can the considerable rise in the volatility of the LAC stock markets in the aftermath of the 2007/2008 crisis be explained by the worsening financial environment in the US markets? To this end, we rely on a time-varying transition...

This book provides new insights on nonlinear cointegration and error correction models. It seeks to bring together recent developments on the subject that are, up until today, scattered throughout the literature. The authors demonstrate the importance of NECM models for studying partial...

Many papers have been documenting and analysing the asymmetry and the weakening of the oil price-macroeconomy relationship as off the early eighties. While there seems to be a consensus about the factors causing the asymmetry, namely adjustment costs which offset the benefits of low energy...

The present paper addresses the question of the oil price-macroeconomy relationship using world data and a time scale decomposition based on the theory of wavelets. Our approach is based on a global indicator, the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Index for the World, and on the new...

We test for nonlinear effects of asset prices on the fiscal policy of three major European economies (the UK, Italy and Spain). We model primary government spending and government revenue as time-varying transition probability Markovian processes (TVPMS). We find that while in Italy fiscal...

This article contributes to the recent empirical literature on financial repression and focuses on the French case since the end of World War II. We find that the fiscal adjustment needed to lower the debt ratio has been smaller during the years of financial repression in comparison with those...

This introduction presents a selection of articles dealing with the issue of measuring the fiscal and financial vulnerabilities in the advanced economies. These articles were presented at a conference organized jointly by the Banque de France and BETA in Strasbourg on 13--14 September. The...

This paper focuses on the following question: has the global financial stress in the US markets during the subprime crisis induced a persistent volatility of Indian equity stocks? We answer this question using sector-based data and we propose a simple stochastic volatility model augmented with...