Modeling interest rates over samples that include the Great Recession requires taking stock of the effective lower bound (ELB) on nominal interest rates. We propose a flexible time– series approach which includes a “shadow rate”—a notional rate that is less than the ELB during the period...

This paper compares the evolution of long-run inflation expectations in the euro area and the United States, using evidence from financial markets and surveys of professional forecasters. Survey data indicate that long-run inflation expectations are reasonably well anchored in both economies but...

In the history of monetary theory and monetary policy, there can be little doubt that the 1980’s are seen as a watershed. Following a disastrous decade of inflation and recession in the 1970’s, the monetarist ideas of Milton Friedman are largely seen to have triumphed then over the older...