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We study the relation between the trading behavior of agents and volatility in toy markets of adaptive inductively rational agents. We show that excess volatility, in such simplified markets, arises as a consequence of (i) the neglect of market impact implicit in price taking behavior and of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004977702
Trust is a collective, self-fulfilling phenomenon that suggests analogies with phase transitions. We introduce a stylized model for the build-up and collapse of trust in networks, which generically displays a first order transition. The basic assumption of our model is that whereas...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011240812
We briefly review data analysis of the Island order book, part of NASDAQ, which suggests a framework to which all limit order markets should comply. Using a simple exclusion particle model, we argue that short-time over-diffusion in limit order markets is due to the non-equilibrium of order...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010872007
A consistency criterion for price impact functions in limit order markets is proposed that prohibits chain arbitrage exploitation. Both the bid-ask spread and the feedback of sequential market orders of the same kind onto both sides of the order book are essential to ensure consistency at the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010873081
The minority game is a generic model of competing adaptive agents, which is often believed to be a model of financial markets. We discuss to which extent this is a reasonable statement, and present minimal modifications that make this model reproduce stylized facts. The resulting model shows...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010874788
We discuss a model of heterogeneous, inductive rational agents inspired by the El Farol Bar problem and the Minority Game. As in markets, agents interact through a collective aggregate variable — which plays a role similar to price — whose value is fixed by all of them. Agents follow a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011057243
We investigate further several properties of the minority game we have recently introduced. We explain the origin of the phase transition and give an analytical expression of σ2/N in the N⪡2M region. The ability of the players to learn a given payoff is also analyzed, and we show that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011057822
We present and study a Minority Game based model of a financial market where adaptive agents—the speculators—interact with deterministic agents—called producers. Speculators trade only if they detect predictable patterns which grant them a positive gain. Indeed the average number of active...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011058428