This working paper describes a medium-term reference scenario for the OECD based on the shortterm projections described in <I>OECD Economic Outlook No.74</I>. OECD-wide real GDP is projected to expand at 2¾ per cent <I>per annum</I> between 2006 and 2009 and the area-wide rate of unemployment to fall below 6...</i></i>

This paper is concerned with how stylised differences in monetary policy transmission mechanisms and product and labour market rigidities between the US and euro-area economies affect their resilience to temporary shocks. To address this issue, a small general equilibrium model with long-run...

Indonesia's fiscal position is generally sound and policy making prudent. However, the country still faces important challenges in terms of economic and social development. Infrastructure, education, health and social security are all spending areas that the government is trying to improve...

Swiss GDP per capita stands amongst the top OECD performers. However, to face medium-term challenges productivity developments will be key to allow the country to maintain its enviable position. Recent trends have not been favourable, with productivity growth underperforming peer countries....

Favourable demographics has boosted Indonesia’s economic growth in recent decades, but its contribution will wane over time. Skills and competences will therefore become increasingly important to raise living standards. Educational attainment has improved considerably, but the quality of...

Potential output losses from the global financial crisis are estimated by comparing recent OECD published projections with a counter-factual assuming a continuation of pre-crisis productivity trends and a trend employment rate which is sensitive to demographic trends. Among the 19 OECD countries...

Le déficit de balance courante des États-Unis a récemment atteint son plus haut niveau historique – environ 5.2 pour cent du PIB – et, même s’il a légèrement baissé depuis, reste très élevé au regard de l’expérience passée (graphique 1). Un déficit de cette ampleur pour une...

This article uses the OECD’s interlink model to explore several possible channels through which a narrowing of the US current account deficit could occur. The shocks considered include dollar depreciation, fiscal consolidation, and an improvement in the non-price competitiveness of US...

The supply-side framework and related measures of output and unemployment gaps play a leading role in the OECD analysis of short-term conjunctural conditions and long-term determinants of growth. To allow such diagnoses for Poland, this paper develops a comprehensive supply block in accordance...

The OECD makes frequent use of the supply-side framework and associated measures of factor productivity, productive potential and associated output gaps in the assessment of the short-term conjunctural situation, comparative economic performance and longer-term growth determinants. This paper...