Dispositional optimism is a personality trait associated with individuals who believe, either rightly or wrongly, that in general good things tend to happen to them more often than bad things. Using a novel longitudinal data set that tracks the job search performance of MBA students, we show...

General Partners (GPs) in private equity face a trade-off between focusing their skills and effort on fewer investments to earn higher returns, or investing more broadly to reduce risk through diversification. Using a novel, deal-level dataset of 5,925 global investments from 1999 to 2016, we...

We study racial and gender disparities in entrepreneurial activity through the lens of a Roy model, focusing on the distinction between idea generation and execution. Using nationally representative sur-vey data, we find that Black and Hispanic individuals demonstrate higher entrepreneurial...

This paper uses Norwegian tax records to examine the performance of angel investors. While most angel investments perform poorly, mean returns are twice the invested capital, due largely to extreme skewness: around one-third of investments are a total loss, but the top one-percent return more...

We build a nationally representative sample of retirement savers in Sweden to study how asymmetric updating of beliefs about climate change affects investment decisions. After the intense heat wave of 2018, respondents in regions dominated by a right-wing, anti-climate party grow less concerned...

Heating, cooling, and powering the residential housing stock accounts for about one-fifth of total annual greenhouse gas emissions in the US. Home size is a key determinant of energy intensity. The average newly built single-family home is 50% larger than in the 1950s. Using distinct...

A question of increasing interest to researchers in a variety of fields is whether the incentives and experience present in many "real world" settings mitigate judgment and decision-making biases. To investigate this question, we analyze the decision making of National Football League teams...

In randomized field experiments, we embedded one- to two-sentence anchoring, goal-setting, or savings threshold cues in emails to employees about their 401(k) savings plan. We find that anchors increase or decrease 401(k) contribution rates by up to 1.9% of income. A high savings goal example...

Many decision makers operate in dynamic environments in which markets, competitors, and technology change regularly. The ability to detect and respond to these regime shifts is critical for economic success. We conduct three experiments to test how effective individuals are at detecting such...