The popular Nelson-Siegel [Nelson, C.R., Siegel, A.F., 1987. Parsimonious modeling of yield curves. Journal of Business 60, 473-489] yield curve is routinely fit to cross sections of intra-country bond yields, and Diebold-Li [Diebold, F.X., Li, C., 2006. Forecasting the term structure of...

The popular Nelson-Siegel (1987) yield curve is routinely fit to cross sections of intra-country bond yields, and Diebold and Li (2006) have recently proposed a dynamized version. In this paper we extend Diebold-Li to a global context, modeling a potentially large set of country yield curves in...

There is much confusion in the economics literature on wage determination and the employment–inflation trade-off. Few model builders pay as much careful attention to the definition and meaning of long-run concepts as did Albert Ando. Expanding on years of painstaking work by Ando, the...

This paper studies the evolution of China's production and trade patterns during its integration into the global economy. We document and explain new facts concerning changes in production and exports at the industry and firm levels using microdata and a quantitative Ricardian and...

Rapidly diminishing Arctic summer sea ice is a strong signal of the pace of global climate change. We provide point, interval, and density forecasts for four measures of Arctic sea ice: area, extent, thickness, and volume. Importantly, we enforce the joint constraint that these measures must...

We suggest a new single-equation test for Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP) based on a dynamic regression approach. The method provides consistent and asymptotically efficient parameter estimates, and is not dependent on assumptions of strict exogeneity. This new approach is asymptotically more...

Least squares regression with heteroskedasticity consistent standard errors ("OLS-HC regression") has proved very useful in cross section environments. However, several major difficulties, which are generally overlooked, must be confronted when transferring the HC technology to time series...

Despite powerful advances in yield curve modeling in the last twenty years, comparatively little attention has been paid to the key practical problem of forecasting the yield curve. In this paper we do so. We use neither the no-arbitrage approach, which focuses on accurately fitting the cross...