This paper studies the problems of estimation and inference in the linear trend model: yt=à+þt+ut, where ut follows an autoregressive process with largest root þ, and þ is the parameter of interest. We contrast asymptotic results for the cases þþþ 1 and þ=1, and argue that the most...

This paper studies the problems of estimation and inference in the linear trend model y_t = α + βt + u_t, where u_t follows an autoregressive process with largest root ρ and β is the parameter of interest. We contrast asymptotic results for the cases |ρ| 1 and ρ = 1 and argue that the most...

The COVID business cycle was unique. The recession was by far the deepest and shortest in the U.S. postwar record and the recovery was remarkably rapid. The cycle saw an unprecedented reallocation of employment and consumption away from in-person services towards goods that can be consumed at...

A major question in the literature on the classical gold standard concerns the efficiency of international arbitrage. Authors have examined efficiency by looking at the spread of the gold points, gold point violations, the flow of gold, or by tests of various asset market criteria, including...

A major question in the literature on the classical gold standard concerns the efficiency of international arbitrage. Authors have examined efficiency by looking at the spread of the gold points, gold point violations, or the flow of gold, or by tests of various asset market criteria, including...

A major question in the literature on the classical gold standard concerns the efficiency of international arbitrage. Authors have examined efficiency by looking at the spread of the gold points, gold point violations, the flow of gold, or by tests of various asset market criteria, including...