A forward default prediction method based on the discrete-time competing risk hazard model (DCRHM) is proposed. The proposed model is developed from the discrete-time hazard model (DHM) by replacing the binary response data in DHM with the multinomial response data, and thus allowing the firms...

The dynamic logit model (DLM) with autocorrelation structure (Liang and Zeger Biometrika 73:13–22, <CitationRef CitationID="CR26">1986</CitationRef>) is proposed as a model for predicting recurrent financial distresses. This model has been applied in many examples to analyze repeated binary data due to its simplicity in computation and...</citationref>

The dynamic ordered probit model (DOPM) with autocorrelation structure is proposed as a model for credit risk forecasting. It is more appropriate than the DOPM with independence structure, because correlations among repeated credit ratings have been observed by Altman and Kao [<italic>J. Financ. Anal</italic>.,...

The dynamic ordered varying-coefficient probit model (DOVPM) is proposed as a model for studying credit ratings. It is constructed by replacing the constant coefficients of firm-specific predictors in the dynamic ordered probit model (DOPM) of Blume, Lim and MacKinlay (1998) with the smooth...