La présente synthèse contient une analyse des effets à long terme de la pandémie de COVID 19 et des mesures publiques de relance économique adoptées pour y faire face sur l’environnement. À l’aide de modélisations à grande échelle, il étudie les impacts des chocs sectoriels et...

2020 marked some of the largest reductions in trade and output volumes since WWII. Focusing on the COVID-19 pandemic and using the latest monthly and quarterly data on international trade of selected countries and products, this paper documents key shifts in geographical direction and product...

This paper assesses the medium term impact of the United Kingdom leaving the EU Single Market under the terms of the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) reached at the end of 2020 using the OECD METRO CGE model. The analysis does not include any transitional costs to fully implementing...

The COVID-19 pandemic and associated policy responses are likely to alter the global economy in a way that affects its ability to adjust to future shocks and changes. This paper develops a point of reference for thinking about developments which could be deemed long-term and which could in turn...

Amidst the recovery from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has resulted in new challenges to the global economy and to international trade. This report relies on detailed trade data to assess the impact of these two overlapping shocks on...

This report analyses the broad risks associated with sectoral output disruptions both domestically and abroad, examining several exposure metrics. The results indicate that domestic shocks generally have larger sectoral impacts than foreign shocks. In most cases, foreign production disruptions...

Supply chain disruptions, related to natural events or geopolitical tensions, have in recent years prompted policy makers to identify potential vulnerabilities related to critical trade dependencies. These are commercial links that could potentially impose significant economic or societal harm,...

This paper quantifies changes in employment and the demand for skills in the European Union following the implementation of Fit for 55 policies. Between 2019 and 2030, the economy is projected to grow by 1.3% in the Fit for 55 scenario (3% in a Baseline scenario without the Fit for 55 policies)....

Global materials use is expected to grow in the coming decades in the absence of new policies, bearing substantial negative impacts for the environment. This report analyses the mechanisms through which resource efficiency and circular economy policies can achieve a decoupling between economic...

This paper reviews the existing literature on modelling the macroeconomic consequences of the transition to a circular economy. It provides insights into the current state of the art on modelling policies to improve resource efficiency and the transition to a circular economy by examining 24...