We provide a theory of the determination of exchange rates based on capital flows in imperfect financial markets. Capital flows drive exchange rates by altering the balance sheets of financiers that bear the risks resulting from international imbalances in the demand for financial assets. Such...

For the small open economy of Botswana the PPP theory is validated in both the absolute and relative version for the Pula-Dollar exchange rate during the sample period 1992 third quarter to 2002 fourth quarter. The Pula-Dollar exchange rate is determined by the long-term trends in Botswana’s...

We provide a theory of the determination of exchange rates based on capital flows in imperfect financial markets. Capital flows drive exchange rates by altering the balance sheets of financiers that bear the risks resulting from international imbalances in the demand for financial assets. Such...

This paper suggests a methodology for identifying speculators in FX (foreign exchange) markets. A player is identified as a speculator only if his speculative characteristics are extreme compared with those of other players and his influence on exchange rates on outlying days is significant....

This paper investigates the impact of the Unremunerated Reserve Requirement (URR) measure recently imposed in Thailand by applying three quantitative techniques of Edison and Reinhart (2001). We find that the URR measure was not completely effective in stabilizing the exchange rate, which was...

We examine how oil prices and exchange rates co-move using two measures of dependence: correlations and copulas and document two main findings for crude oil prices and a range of currencies: oil price–exchange rate dependence is in general weak, although it rose substantially in the aftermath...

This paper examines the relationship between oil prices and the US dollar exchange rate using detrended cross-correlation analysis. For a wide set of currencies in the periods before and since the onset of the recent global financial crisis, we characterized the oil price–exchange rate...

Market impacts of Japanese macroeconomic announcements within minutes on the dollar/yen foreign exchange are analyzed. High-frequency data collected from the actual trading platform, EBS, are used. First, impacts on returns are analyzed. Macroeconomic statistics releases that consistently had...

Currency crises that coincide with banking crises tend to share four elements. First, governments provide guarantees to domestic and foreign bank creditors. Second, banks do not hedge their exchange rate risk. Third, there is a lending boom before the crises. Finally, when the currency/banking...

High interest rate currencies tend to appreciate. This is the uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) puzzle. It is primarily a statement about short-term interest rates and how they are related to exchange rates. Short-term interest rates are strongly affected by monetary policy. The UIP puzzle,...