This paper looks at the partial fragmentation of the euro area resulting from the sovereign debt crisis, concentrating on two specific countries: Portugal and Spain. The paper starts by describing the evolution and structure of those financial systems. It quantitatively evaluates the changes in...

This paper shows how a Merton-model approach can be used to develop measures of the probability of failure of individual quoted UK companies. Probability estimates are then constructed for a group of failed companies and their properties as leading indicators of failure assessed. Probability...