Structural vector autoregressions are used to analyse the relationship between real output and relative prices within the European Union (EU) and the United States. Relative price variability appears to be more important for adjustment within the EU than the United States, reflecting the lower...

Estimation of graphical models whose conditional independence graph comes from the general class of decomposable graphs is compared with estimation under the more restrictive assumption that the graphs are interval graphs. This restriction is shown to improve the mixing of the Markov chain Monte...

Given a decomposable graph, we characterize and enumerate the set of pairs of vertices whose connection or disconnection results in a new graph that is also decomposable. We discuss the relevance of these results to Markov chain Monte Carlo methods that sample or optimize over the space of...

This paper presents two approaches to modeling the use of IMF resources from the General Resources Account in order to gauge whether the recent decline in credit outstanding is a temporary or a permanent phenomenon. The two approaches—the time-series behavior of credit outstanding and a...

Structural vector autoregressions are used to analyze the relationship between real output and relative prices within the European Union and the United States. Relative price variability appears to be more important for adjustment within the European Union than in the United States, reflecting...

This paper finds that changes in durable manufacturing employment and investment in computer equipment can explain rising wage dispersion in the United States, measured in terms of the education premium. Reduced employment opportunities in durables production drive down the average wage for...

Full Bayesian computational inference for model determination in undirected graphical models is currently restricted to decomposable graphs or other special cases, except for small-scale problems, say up to 15 variables. In this paper we develop new, more efficient methodology for such...

Recent incidents of exchange rate collapse have provoked interest in how much these events are determined by economic fundamentals. This paper considers whether interest rate differentials are appropriate measures of the risk of devaluation and whether this measure of devaluation risk reflects...