This paper analyzes the dramatic rise in U.S. inflation since 2020, which we decompose into a rise in core inflation as measured by the weighted median inflation rate and deviations of headline inflation from core. We explain the rise in core with two factors, the tightening of the labor market...

This paper derives the optimal monetary-policy rule in a simple model with anchored inflation expectations and an effective lower bound (ELB) on interest rates, assuming a long-run inflation goal of 2%. With fully anchored expectations, the optimal policy is a version of average inflation...

The fall in the U.S. public debt/GDP ratio from 106% in 1946 to 23% in 1974 is often attributed to high rates of economic growth. This paper examines the roles of three other factors: primary budget surpluses, surprise inflation, and pegged interest rates before the Fed-Treasury Accord of 1951....

The standard measure of core or underlying inflation is the inflation rate excluding food and energy prices. This paper constructs an alternative measure, the weighted median inflation rate, for 38 advanced and emerging economies using subclass level disaggregation of the CPI over 1990-2021, and...

A growing body of work has shown that aggregate shocks affect the formation of preferences and beliefs. This article reviews evidence from sociology, social psychology, and economics to assess the relevance of aggregate shocks, whether the period in which they are experienced matters, and...

"This paper compares the performance of economies with different monetary regimes during the last quarter century. The conclusions include: (1) There is little evidence that inflation targeting affects performance in advanced economies, but some evidence of benefits in emerging economies; (2)...