A scoring rule <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">$$S(x; q)$$</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"> <math xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <mrow> <mi>S</mi> <mo stretchy="false">(</mo> <mi>x</mi> <mo>;</mo> <mi>q</mi> <mo stretchy="false">)</mo> </mrow> </math> </EquationSource> </InlineEquation> provides a way of judging the quality of a quoted probability density <InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">$$q$$</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"> <math xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <mi>q</mi> </math> </EquationSource> </InlineEquation> for a random variable <InlineEquation ID="IEq3"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">$$X$$</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"> <math xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <mi>X</mi> </math> </EquationSource> </InlineEquation> in the light of its outcome <InlineEquation ID="IEq4"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">$$x$$</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"> <math xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <mi>x</mi> </math> </EquationSource> </InlineEquation>. It is called proper if honesty is your best policy, i.e., when you believe <InlineEquation ID="IEq5"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">$$X$$</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"> <math xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <mi>X</mi>...</math></equationsource></equationsource></inlineequation></equationsource></equationsource></inlineequation></equationsource></equationsource></inlineequation></equationsource></equationsource></inlineequation></equationsource></equationsource></inlineequation>

The skew-normal model is a class of distributions that extends the Gaussian family by including a skewness parameter. This model presents some inferential problems linked to the estimation of the skewness parameter. In particular its maximum likelihood estimator can be infinite especially for...

We display pseudo-likelihood as a special case of a general estimation technique based on proper scoring rules. Such a rule supplies an unbiased estimating equation for any statistical model, and this can be extended to allow for missing data. When the scoring rule has a simple local structure,...

Previous models of ratifier effects have relied on restrictive assumptions regarding the dimensionality of the choice space and the preferences and rationality of actors. These assumptions can lead to an underestimation of the importance of ratifiers and a mischaracterization of their role. A...

The interpretation of the resource-conflict link that has become most publicized—the rebel greed hypothesis—depends on just one of many plausible mechanisms that could underlie a relationship between resource dependence and violence. The author catalogues a large range of rival...

Since 1989, international efforts to end protracted conflicts have included sustained investments in the disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) of combatants. Yet while policy analysts have debated the factors that contribute to successful DDR programs and scholars have reasoned...