Applied cointegration analysis has much to gain from strong links with economic theory. For example, the current generation of equilibrium macroeconomic models have simple predictions for cointegrating vectors. These models also suggest that important information about the economic structure can...

Recent research suggests that commonly estimated dynamic Taylor rules augmented with a lagged interest rate imply too much predictability of interest rate changes compared with yield curve evidence. We show that this is not sufficient proof against the Taylor rule: the result could be driven by...

In this paper we study 2-state Markov switching VAR models of monthly unemployment and inflation for three countries: Sweden, United Kingdom, and the United States. The primary purpose is to examine if periods of low inflation are associated with high or low unemployment volatility. To interpret...

In this paper we study 2-state Markov switching VAR models of monthly unemployment and inflation for three countries: Sweden, United Kingdom, and the United States. The primary purpose is to examine if periods of low inflation are associated with high or low unemployment volatility. To interpret...

In this paper, the authors estimate devaluation risk in Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden. The target exchange ra te is modeled as a censored variable, a "shadow peg" that is only observed when the equilibrium floating rate is too far from the prevailing peg. Using a two-step procedure, the...

Cointegration analyses of macroeconomic time series are often not based on fully specified theoretical models. We use a theoretical model to scrutinize common procedures in applied cointegration analysis. Monte Carlo experiments show that 1) some tests of the cointegration vectors do not work...