Simple statistical forecasting rules, which are usually simplifications of classical models, have been shown to make better predictions than more complex rules, especially when the future values of a criterion are highly uncertain. In this article, we provide evidence that some of the fast and...

One-reason decision making is a label for a class of fast and frugal heuristics that base decisions on only one reason. These heuristics do not attempt to optimally fit parameters to a given environment; rather, they have simple structural features and bet that the environment will fit them. By...

This chapter focuses on the recognition heuristic and the less is the more effect. Instead of being unboundedly rational, it is ecologically rational, that is, reasonable with respect to some environments but not others. There are domains in which the recognition heuristic will not work. A wise...

Investing for retirement is one of the most consequential yet daunting decisions consumers face. We present a way to both aid and understand consumers as they construct preferences for retirement income. The method enables consumers to build desired probability distributions of wealth...