Purpose – This paper aims to test whether a structured application of persuasion principles might help improve advertising decisions. Evidence-based principles are currently used to improve decisions in other complex situations, such as those faced in engineering and medicine....

Purpose – This paper aims to respond to issues posed in the four commentaries on Armstrong, Du, Green and Graefe (2016, this issue) regarding the immediate usefulness of that paper’s test of advertisements’ compliance with persuasion principles, and regarding the need for further research....

The Delphi technique is better than traditional group meetings for forecasting and has some advantages over another promising alternative to meetings, prediction markets. In this article, Kesten, Scott, and Andreas observe the increasing popularity of Delphi, describe the benefits of using this...

The authors explain how, for the third time since its appearance in 2004, the PollyVote (www.polyvote.com) has demonstrated the value of combining forecasts to predict the two-party popular vote in U.S. presidential elections. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2013

We summarize the literature on the effectiveness of combining forecasts by assessing the conditions under which combining is most valuable. Using data on the six US presidential elections from 1992 to 2012, we report the reductions in error obtained by averaging forecasts within and across four...

We conducted laboratory experiments for analyzing the accuracy of three structured approaches (nominal groups, Delphi, and prediction markets) relative to traditional face-to-face meetings (FTF). We recruited 227 participants (11 groups per method) who were required to solve a quantitative...

At PoliticalForecasting.com, better known as the Pollyvote, the authors combine forecasts from four sources: election polls, a panel of American political experts, the Iowa Electronic Market, and quantitative models. The day before the election, Polly predicted that the Republican ticket's share...