We develop a method to estimate which side will win a civil war. The key insight we deliver is that, for typical sovereign debt contracts, the probability of debt repayment will equal the probability of victory in a civil war. We test our predictor for standard outcomes in civil wars, including...

The recent global financial crisis has caused massive upheavals worldwide. The papers in this volume analyze whether financial principles seem to have shifted in recent years, and what that may mean for international financial markets and regulation. What ¡°broke¡± in the current crisis? Is...

The finance industry has grown, financial markets have become more liquid, and information technology allows arbitrageurs to trade faster than ever. But have market prices then become more informative? We use stock and bond prices to forecast earnings and find that the information content of...

This article investigates the risk-return relations of stocks traded in frontier markets, a class of small, illiquid, less accessible and less known emerging markets that has escaped the attention of many researchers. We examine the cross-section of risk premiums of 360 stocks traded in 19...