This discussion paper will briefly examine the concepts of risk and uncertainty, and the relevance of risk to decision making about animal health programs. Various techniques for dealing with uncertain cash flows will then be discussed, with particular emphasis on three extensions to the...

‘Risk’ has become a central theme in 21st-century policy thinking. The fact that individuals and families are vulnerable to a wide range of social, economic and other risks, and that collective action is needed to help reduce and manage these risks, has long been important in social...

Questions relating to the allocation and management of risk have played a central role in the development of the National Water Initiative, particularly as it has applied to the Murray-Darling Basin. The central issues of efficiency and equity in allocations are best understood by considering...

Dual approaches have proved their value in many areas of economic analysis. Until recently, however, they have been virtually ignored in the analysis of choice under uncertainty.In this paper, we present a dual formulation of choice under uncertainty based on a few simple assumptions about...

South Australia’s Minister for Primary Industries, Natural Resources and Regional Development in 1996 delegated to an industry based Apiary Task Force the role to develop and implement a cost effective disease control strategy. Underlying this broad term of reference was the need to increase...

This paper develops a method for estimating the value of additional information to the individual livestock producer. In doing so it considers as part of the decision made by the farmer to vaccinate animals against B. bovis the decision to collect information on the health status of his herd...

One approach to rationalising policies for addressing potentially catastrophic climate change when such policies may prove unnecessary is to suppose the policies provide a form of social insurance even in the presence of pure uncertainty. Then, provided the policies are effective, such insurance...

This paper has two goals. First, we demonstrate that standard arguments and methods from production and duality analysis can be used to provide a comprehensive and general treatment of the value of information for a risk-averse firm with expected-utility (linear-in-probabilities) preferences and...

In the past year, climate change has moved from political controversy to political consensus; at least, in relation for price-based policies the need to limit emissions. Uncertainties remain but with both major parties proposing to develop an emissions trading regime, it is timely to highlight...

We consider an asset market traded three types of assets: the risk–free asset, the market portfolio and derivatives written on the market portfolio return. We determine a sufficient condition to guarantee that noise risk monotonically changes their derivatives. The condition is that...