According to traditional literature, liquidity risk in individual banks can turn into a system-wide ¯nancial crisis when either interbank credit exposures or bank runs are present. This paper shows that this phenomenon can also arise when individual liquidity risk trans- forms into system-wide...

Scale-free (inhomogeneous) connective structures with modular (highly clustered) hierarchies are ubiquitous in real–world networks. Evidence from the main Colombian payment and settlement systems verifies that local financial networks have self-organized into a modular scale-free architecture...

Evidence suggests that the Colombian interbank funds market is an inhomogeneous and hierarchical network in which a few financial institutions fulfill the role of “super-spreaders” of central bank liquidity among market participants. Results concur with evidence from other interbank markets...

We study the network of Colombian sovereign securities settlements. With data from the settlement market infrastructure we study financial institutions’ transactions from three different trading and registering individual networks that we combine into a multi-layer network. Examining this...

An interacting network coupling financial institutions’ multiplex (i.e. multi-layer) and financial market infrastructures’ single-layer networks gives an accurate picture of a financial system’s true connective architecture. We examine and compare the main properties of Colombian multiplex...

Levels of interest rates below historical norms may have enhanced financial instability in developed and developing economies during the 2000's. The risk taking channel of monetary policy transmission is a recent theory that explains the interaction between risk perceptions of the financial...

In this paper, we propose a methodology for calculating a leading index of the economic activity based on a modification of Stock and Watson’s (1989, 1991, 1992) approach. We use Kalman filter techniques for estimating the state space representation of the leading index model. The methodology...

Typically, central banks use a variety of individual models (or a combination of models) when forecasting inflation rates. Most of these require excessive amounts of data, time, and computational power; all of which are scarce when monetary authorities meet to decide over policy interventions....

We propose to assess the performance of k forecast procedures by exploring the distributions of forecast errors and error losses. We argue that non systematic forecast errors minimize when their distributions are symmetric and unimodal, and that forecast accuracy should be assessed through...

Este trabajo evalúa si las transformaciones de potencia (Box-Cox y en particular logarítmica) de series de tiempo mejoran la precisión de los pronósticos de modelos ARIMA ajustados a variables económicas de Colombia en dos periodos diferentes: 1980-1995 y 2002-2012. Se compara la habilidad...