En este documento se propone utilizar la metodología de perfiles coincidentes propuesta por Martínez (2010), con el fin de determinar si un conjunto de indicadores obtenidos de encuestas de opinión y otras fuentes son coincidentes o líderes de los indicadores económicos observables y, que...

This study uses a Dynamic Conditional Correlation multivariate GARCH approach for testing for contagion among Latin American financial markets to shocks originated in the United States and Europe. Using daily data on stock market returns for the period comprised between July 4th, 2001 and...

In this paper, we study the empirical relationship between credit funding sources and the financial vulnerability of the Colombian banking system. We propose a statistical model to measure and predict banking-fragility episodes associated with credit funding sources classified into retail...

En este trabajo se presenta un modelo estadístico de alerta temprana, que utiliza modelos de duración para evaluar el estado corriente y pronosticar el estado futuro de la salud financiera de los bancos en Colombia. En el artículo se discuten las ventajas que tiene utilizar modelos de...

This paper presents an estimation of credit quality transition matrices for commercial banks inColombia, using a duration hazard function model, and following the methodology proposed byGómez-González et al (2009). Using a test developed by Weißbach et al (2005), we test for...

This paper analyzes the determinants of interest margins in the Colombian Financial System. Based on the model by Ho and Saunders (1981), interest margins are modelled as a function of the pure spread and bank-specific institutional imperfections using quarterly data for the period...

Using a panel of Colombian banks and quarterly data between 1996:1 and 2010:3, we study the relationship between short-run adjustments in bank capital buffers and the business cycle. We follow a partial adjustment framework and control for several variables that have been identified as important...

En este documento se explora el tipo de relación existente entre el Índice de Precios del Productor (IPP) y el Índice de Precios al Consumidor (IPC), en el sentido de establecer si el IPP se puede considerar como un índice líder del IPC. Para tal efecto se utiliza la metodología de...

We propose to assess the performance of k forecast procedures by exploring the distributions of forecast errors and error losses. We argue that non systematic forecast errors minimize when their distributions are symmetric and unimodal, and that forecast accuracy should be assessed through...

We estimate a non-parametrical Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and find strong evidence rejecting the classical linear CAPM. Furthermore, we find inconsistent linear betas for a series of stocks in the Colombian stock exchange (BVC), supporting the hypothesis of a better and consistent...