We investigate the prediction of Italian industrial production. We first specify a model based on electricity consumption; we show that the cubic trend in such a model mostly captures the evolution over time of the electricity coefficient, which can be well approximated by a smooth transition...

A time series model in which the signal is buried in non-Gaussian noise may throw up observations that are outliers when judged by the Gaussian yardstick. We describe an observation-driven model, based on an exponential generalized beta distribution of the second kind (EGB2), in which the signal...

We compare two EGARCH models, which belong to a new class of models in which the dynamics are driven by the score of the conditional distribution of the observations. Models of this kind are called dynamic conditional score (DCS) models and their form facilitates the development of a...

The aim of the present work is to obtain short-term predictions of the monthly volume of the industrial production of the euro area. Preliminary information on the behaviour of this variable is needed, since the index is released with a lag of about two months. A model based on the US industrial...