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FORECASTING OUTPUT GROWTH AND INFLATION IN THE EURO AREA: ARE FINANCIAL SPREADS USEFUL?

Nobili, Andrea - Banca d'Italia - 2005

This paper deals with the usefulness of several measures of financial spreads (the slope of the yield curve, the reverse yield gap, the credit quality spread) for fore-casting real economic activity and inflation in the euro area. A quarterly Bayesian vector autoregression model is used to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005111558

Uncertainty and heterogeneity in factor models forecasting

Luciani, Matteo; Monteforte, Libero - Banca d'Italia - 2013

In this paper, we exploit the heterogeneity in the forecasts obtained by estimating different factor models to measure forecast uncertainty. Our approach is simple and intuitive. It consists first in selecting all the models that outperform some benchmark model, and then in constructing an...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011099661

Do food commodity prices have asymmetric effects on Euro-Area inflation?

Porqueddu, Mario; Venditti, Fabrizio - Banca d'Italia - 2012

This paper analyzes the relationship between commodity prices and consumer food prices in the euro area and in its largest economies (Germany, France and Italy) and tests whether the latter respond asymmetrically to shocks to the former. The issue is of particular interest for those monetary...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011099718

The profit share and return on capital in Italy: a tentative interpretation

Torrini, Roberto - Banca d'Italia - 2005

Profit share in Italy has been growing between the mid-1970s and the mid-1990s, remaining stable at historically high levels since than. After dropping in the first half of the 1970s, owing to an unprecedented rapid rise in wages, profit share started to recover. The rise during the 1980s...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005770758

Rational ignorance and the public choice of redistribution

Larcinese, Valentino - Banca d'Italia - 2002

explanation for the poor empirical support encountered by political economy models of income redistribution. It shows that … platforms, and vote-seeking political parties should take this into account: as a consequence, redistribution will generally be …, an increase in inequality will not unambigously increase redistribution. Finally, introducing endogenous information may …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005467304

Human capital, technical change and the welfare state

Benabou, Ronald - Banca d'Italia - 2002

I study the interactions between the distribution of human capital, technological choice, and redistributive institutions. I first ask what makes alternative social contracts such as a European-style "welfare state" and US-style "laissez-faire" sustainable, and in particular how each is affected...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005113533

Beyond the acronyms: local property taxation in Italy

Messina, Giovanna; Savegnago, Marco - Banca d'Italia - 2014

The paper traces recent developments in local real estate taxation in Italy. We exploit a rich dataset at both aggregate and individual level to estimate the variation in local taxes on first homes in the last three years and the redistributive impact of the adoption of the tax on indivisible...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011103309

Ricerche quantitative per la politica economica 1995 ; Vol. 2

1997

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000654083

Limited Financial Market Participation: A Transaction Cost-Based Explanation

Paiella, Monica - Banca d'Italia - 2001

This paper focuses on the issue of limited financial market participation and determines a lower bound on the level of fixed transaction costs that are required to reconcile observed portfolio choices with asset returns within an isoelastic utility framework. The bound is determined from the set...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005113581

Bank profitability and taxation

Albertazzi, Ugo; Gambacorta, Leonardo - Banca d'Italia - 2007

This paper investigates how bank profitability is affected by corporate income tax (CIT) using aggregate data on the banking sector of the main industrialized countries for the period 1981-2003. Two main novelties emerge with respect to the existing literature. First, the paper explicitly...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005467296