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Financial indicators and density forecasts for US output and inflation
Alessandri, Piergiorgio; Mumtaz, Haroon - Banca d'Italia - 2014
When do financial markets help in predicting economic activity? With incomplete markets, the link between financial and real economy is state-dependent and financial indicators may turn out to be useful particularly in forecasting "tail" macroeconomic events. We examine this conjecture by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011099642
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Academic performance and the Great Recession
Adamopoulou, Effrosyni; Tanzi, Giulia Martina - Banca d'Italia - 2014
In this paper we study how the Great Recession affected university students in terms of performance, with a focus on the drop-out probability. To do so, we use individual-level data on a representative sample of university students in Italy in 2007 and 2011. We measure the severity of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011105134
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Euro area and global oil shocks: an empirical model-based analysis
Forni, Lorenzo; Gerali, Andrea; Notarpietro, Alessandro; … - Banca d'Italia - 2012
We assess the impact of oil shocks on euro-area macroeconomic variables by estimating a new-Keynesian small open economy model with Bayesian methods. Oil price is determined according to supply and demand conditions in the world oil market. We find that the impact of an increase in the price of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011099725
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Why is the Business-Cycle Behavior of Fundamentals Alike Across Exchange-Rate Regimes?
Dedola, Luca; Leduc, Sylvain - Banca d'Italia - 2001
Since the adoption of flexible exchange rates, real exchange rates have been much more volatile than they were under Bretton Woods. However, the volatilities of most other macroeconomic variables have remained approximately unchanged. This poses a puzzle for standard international business cycle...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005609375
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Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Imbalances
Baldacci, Emanuele; Gupta, Sanjeev; Mulas-Granados, Carlos - Banca d'Italia - 2014
The volume collects the essays presented at the 15th Workshop on Public Finance organised by Banca d'Italia in Perugia from 4 to 6 April 2013. The workshop focused on the link between fiscal policy and macroeconomic imbalances and comprised four sessions. The first session concentrated on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011277938
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Family firms and the Great Recession: out of sight, out of mind?
Leandro D�Aurizio; Romano, Livio - Banca d'Italia - 2013
This paper studies how family firms reacted to the 2008 economic crisis by adjusting employment. In particular, we look at how the geographical distribution of the workforce may have led to divergencies between family and non-family firms. Using a difference-in-difference approach, we provide...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011099712
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The Italian industrial system between globalization and crisis
Accetturo, Antonio; Bassanetti, Antonio; Bugamelli, Matteo - Banca d'Italia - 2013
This paper describes recent developments in the Italian industrial system and investigates the main factors affecting its competitiveness. Our analysis provides a picture of widespread weaknesses. Production levels in all industries are lower than those before the crisis; with the exception of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011100372
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Credit availability and investment in Italy: lessons from the "Great Recession"
Gaiotti, Eugenio - Banca d'Italia - 2011
The paper argues that the traditional difficulty encountered in finding evidence on the effects of credit availability on economic activity depends on the fact that these effects are powerful but rare and vary with the cycle. The global financial crisis offers an opportunity to test this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008865935
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Correlation Analysis of Financial Contagion: What One Should Know before Running a Test
Corsetti, Giancarlo; Pericoli, Marcello; Sbracia, Massimo - Banca d'Italia - 2001
This paper presents a general test of contagion in financial markets based on bivariate correlation analysis � a test … that can be interpreted as an extension of the normal correlation theorem. Contagion is defined as a structural break in … hypothesis of 'no contagion' can be rejected only if the variance of country specific shocks is set to levels that are not …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005467302
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Externalities in interbank network: results from a dynamic simulation model
Manna, Michele; Schiavone, Alessandro - Banca d'Italia - 2012
contagion over but these measures become less effective when the shock is very large, when the situation is best addressed by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011099690