This paper conducts an exhaustive out-of-sample forecasting evaluation exercise for the monthly price of crude oil between 1992 and 2011. The idea is to identify the forecasting strategy that results in the “best” forecasts in terms of mean forecasting error. To this end, a wide variety of...

This paper addresses three policy questions related to the episodes of real exchange rate (RER) appreciation in the aftermath of the 2008-09 global financial crisis. First, we determine the extent to which recent movements in RER, in several countries, are driven by changes in RER determinants...

This paper provides evidence on the importance of distinguishing among episodes of capital flow reversals driven by stop or reversal of gross capital inflows (sudden stops) and those explained by large surges in gross capital outflows (sudden flights). Besides finding that they have different...

This paper analyzes the emerging economies sovereign spread, with emphasis on the impact of commodity prices. Using a panel data model, it tests the heterogeneity of this relationship, depending on the degree of exports concentration and distinguishes the impact of global activity on sovereign...

The impact on oil prices of geopolitical tensions and oil supply-side events is examined. Using a GARCH model on daily oil price data, we find that, when these events actually occur -10% frequency- the geopolitical events explain around 3/4 of daily oil returns forecasted by the model, and oil...

The financial crisis of 2008, the subsequent fiscal stimulus, and damage to the fiscal position –especially in the developed countries—, raised the concerns about their impact on long-term interest rates. Using a stylized model, we establish the link between long-term interest rates and the...