Do public sector wages exert presures on private sector wages, or has private sector a leadership role in wage setting?. This paper tries to isolate the pure signalling effect that one sector might exert on the other by controlling for other determinants of wages (prices, productivity,...

We construct multivariate, state-space mixed-frequencies models for the main componentsof the Spanish General Government sector made up of blocks for each one of its subsectors: Central Government, Social Security and aggregate of Regional and Local government sectors. Each block is modelled...

The analysis of the macroeconomic impact of fiscal policies in the euro area has been traditionally limited by the absence of quarterly fiscal data. To overcome this problem, we provide two new databases in this paper. Firstly, we construct a quarterly database of euro area fiscal variables for...

This paper develops a formal framework based on multivariate spectral techniques for assessing the performance of multivariate dynamic models whose solution is approximated through simulation. The approach is especially suitable for models that focus on a particular frequency range , such as...

This paper examines possible explanations for observed differences in the transmission of euro area monetary policy in central bank large scale macroeconomic models. In particular it considers the extent to which these differences are due to differences in the underlying economies or (possibly...

Global macroeconometric models can be a powerful tool for economic analysis and forecasting in various scenarios. This paper analyses the NiGEM model and its application to the euro area, placing particular emphasis on the study of the relative situation of the member countries' economies.

This paper estimates a single-equation model to analyse the main explanatory factors behind changes in Spanish household credit, considering that the behaviour of its determinants is exogenous. According to the evidence reported, household borrowing is determined in the long run by real...

In this paper we propose an affine model that uses as observed factors the Nelson and Siegel (NS) components summarising the term structure of interest rates. By doing so, we are able to reformulate the Diebold and Li (2006) approach to forecast the yield curve in a way that allows us to...

The sharp decline in economic activity registered in Spain over 2008 and 2009 has no precedents in recent history. After ten prosperous years with an average GDP growth of 3.7%, the current recession places non-judgemental forecasting models under stress. This paper evaluates the Spanish GDP...

In this paper we decompose nominal interest rates into real risk-free rates, inflation expectations and risk premia using an affine model that takes as factors the observed inflation rate and the parameters generated in the zero yield curve estimation. We apply this model to the Spanish economy...